Unadorned Notes: April 25-29, 2025
Markets Rise on Trade Hopes; Apple Shifts iPhone Production; U.S. Sets Trade Negotiations Framework; Trump Backs Deep-Sea Mining; Carney Wins Amid U.S. Tensions
Economics, Finance, and Business
Consumer Confidence Hits New Lows: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 7.9 points in April 2025 to 86.0, its lowest since the early COVID-19 pandemic, driven by a sharp decline in expectations. The Expectations Index dropped to 54.4, a level historically associated with upcoming recessions, amid growing pessimism about future income, job availability, and business conditions. The decline was broad-based across age, income, and political groups, with concerns over tariffs and inflation dominating consumer write-in responses. A rising share of consumers expect job losses, higher interest rates, and worsening family financial situations, with purchasing intentions weakening across homes, cars, and services. Despite stable views of current conditions, the data reflect growing fears of economic deterioration, echoing sentiment not seen since the Great Recession.1
Job Openings Fall, Layoffs Steady: U.S. job openings declined by 288,000 to 7.192 million in March 2025, according to the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), missing economists’ expectations. February’s openings were revised downward, and hiring rose modestly by 41,000 to 5.411 million, reflecting employer caution amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. Layoffs decreased by 222,000 to 1.558 million, indicating continued labor market stability. Economists warn that persistent trade disruptions and federal downsizing could weaken hiring in the coming months.2
Markets Rise on Trade Hopes: U.S. stocks extended gains Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 300 points as investor sentiment improved on signs of trade progress. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said a trade deal had been reached with an unnamed country, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cited progress with India, South Korea, and Japan. Despite short-term optimism, several companies, including General Motors, JetBlue, and UPS, issued profit warnings or cut guidance due to tariff uncertainty. Economic data reflected weakening consumer sentiment and slowing job market momentum amid ongoing trade tensions, particularly with China. The S&P 500 remains down 7.3% since President Donald Trump’s second inauguration, marking the worst start to a presidential term since 1973.3
Tech Giants’ Slump Rattles Markets: The Magnificent Seven—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla—have collectively lost $2.5 trillion in market value this year, marking their worst start since 2022. Despite a recent rally, the group remains down over 6.5% each, dragging broader indexes, with the Nasdaq Composite down 10% year-to-date. The group’s earnings growth is projected to slow to 16% in 2025 from 37% in 2024, while challenges such as weak sales, regulatory pressures, and export curbs weigh on individual companies. Valuations for several members remain elevated, though they have moderated from earlier highs, raising concerns about market over-reliance on these firms. Analysts remain divided, with some predicting a rebound due to the companies’ competitive advantages and the relative attractiveness of U.S. equities.4
Apple Shifts iPhone Production: Apple plans to manufacture most iPhones sold in the U.S. at Indian factories by the end of 2026, accelerating its shift from China amid rising tariff risks. The company is in urgent discussions with suppliers Foxconn and Tata, who currently operate three facilities in India and are building two more. Although Indian production is up to 10% more expensive than in China, Apple shipped $2 billion worth of iPhones from India to the U.S. in March 2025, setting new export records. The move comes as U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports exceed 100%, while duties on Indian goods remain comparatively lower at 26%. The Trump administration has paused most new tariffs for three months, excluding China, while signaling a potential easing of trade tensions.5
U.S. Politics, Policies, and Geopolitics
Trump Defends China Tariffs: In an ABC News interview, President Donald Trump dismissed concerns that 145% tariffs on Chinese imports would raise U.S. consumer prices, asserting that “China probably will eat those tariffs.” When pressed on the economic impact, Trump stated that the high duties effectively block Chinese goods and argued that the policy was justified, saying “they deserve it.” ABC anchor Terry Moran noted that the tariffs could significantly raise prices on a wide range of products, including electronics and clothing. Trump rejected this assessment, claiming the burden would fall on China, not American consumers.6
China Lifts U.S. Ethane Tariff: China waived a 125% tariff on U.S. ethane imports, reversing a measure imposed earlier this month in retaliation for President Donald Trump’s 145% tariff hike on Chinese goods. The exemption benefits major Chinese petrochemical firms such as Satellite Chemical and Sinopec, and key U.S. exporters including Enterprise Products Partners and Energy Transfer. Ethane joins a growing list of U.S. goods granted relief from Chinese tariffs, following similar waivers on pharmaceuticals and microchips. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued that tariffs are placing severe economic pressure on China, estimating potential job losses in the millions. Bessent also suggested a trade deal with India may soon be announced, following recent talks between U.S. and Indian officials.7
U.S. Sets Trade Negotiations Framework: The Trump administration plans to conduct staggered trade negotiations with approximately 18 major trading partners using a unified framework developed by the U.S. Trade Representative’s office. The framework outlines key categories for discussion, including tariffs, non-tariff barriers, digital trade, rules of origin, and economic security, with individual demands tailored to each nation. Negotiations will proceed on a rolling basis in three-week cycles, aiming for a July 8 deadline before reciprocal tariffs are imposed on nations without agreements. While Mexico, Canada, and China follow separate negotiation tracks, discussions with other partners remain general, with the European Union and United Kingdom setting firm boundaries on certain domestic policies. The administration continues to review incoming trade proposals, although specific negotiating demands have yet to be transmitted to all parties.8
Trump Backs Deep-Sea Mining: President Donald Trump signed an executive order to accelerate U.S. involvement in deep-sea mining, aiming to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals such as rare earth elements, nickel, and copper. The order directs federal agencies to fast-track permits under the Deep Seabed Hard Minerals Act and authorizes activity in both U.S. and international waters, bypassing the U.N.-backed regulatory process. Environmental groups and scientists criticized the move, warning of irreversible damage to marine ecosystems and denouncing the administration’s unilateral action. The International Seabed Authority, a U.N. body not recognized by the U.S., is working toward formal regulations by 2025 to govern seabed mineral extraction.9
QZ’s Comment: The environmental lobby’s narrative effectively serves the status quo that benefits China. Environmentalist claims about “irreversible damage” are grounded in ecological science but lack proportionality or comparative reasoning. The appropriate approach would be to pilot deep-sea mining under rigorous monitoring, not ban it outright, and treat environmental risks as manageable engineering problems, not moral absolutes.
Trump Marks 100 Days in Michigan: President Donald Trump visited Michigan on Tuesday to mark his first 100 days in office, emphasizing national defense spending and economic policies amid declining approval ratings. At Selfridge Air National Guard Base, he announced a $1 trillion defense investment and the delivery of 21 F-15X jets, praising bipartisan support from Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Trump also signed an executive order on Air Force One aimed at mitigating the impact of his auto tariffs through credits and levy relief. Later, at a rally in Warren, he highlighted administration achievements while addressing voter concerns in the economically sensitive state. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed his approval rating had dropped to 42%, with economic approval falling to 36%, the lowest of his presidency.10
Trump Administration Raids Club, Arrests Judge: Federal authorities arrested over 100 suspected illegal immigrants in a Colorado nightclub raid tied to drug trafficking and violent crime, drawing praise from President Donald Trump and Attorney General Pam Bondi. Active-duty service members were allegedly involved in security and criminal activity at the club, according to the DEA. The raid occurred amid growing backlash over the administration’s immigration crackdown, including the public arrest of Wisconsin Judge Hannah Dugan for allegedly helping a Mexican national avoid federal arrest. Legal experts stated that the arrest was a politically motivated effort to intimidate the judiciary, highlighting broader tensions between Trump and the courts.1112
Trump Targets Sanctuary Jurisdictions: President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing federal agencies to compile a list of cities and states that do not fully cooperate with U.S. immigration enforcement, potentially subjecting them to funding cuts and legal action. The order follows judicial setbacks, including a federal ruling in California blocking similar past efforts on constitutional grounds. The directive empowers the Justice Department to pursue civil-rights cases against jurisdictions that, in its view, favor illegal immigrants over U.S. citizens in areas such as sentencing and tuition policies. While local officials in cities like New York, Chicago, and Boston pledged to maintain sanctuary policies, they also signaled selective cooperation with federal authorities in targeting violent offenders.13
Regulators Ease Crypto Bank Rules: U.S. banking regulators, including the Federal Reserve, FDIC, and OCC, withdrew previous guidance that urged banks to exercise caution in engaging with cryptocurrency activities. The rescinded documents had required banks to seek prior regulatory approval before offering services related to crypto-assets and stablecoins. Regulators had previously warned of risks such as volatility, legal uncertainty, and liquidity concerns. The move reflects a broader shift under the Trump administration toward a more permissive approach to financial innovation, including digital assets. The Federal Reserve indicated it may consider new guidance to better support innovation in the crypto sector.14
Carney Wins Amid U.S. Tensions: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney declared victory in federal elections, vowing to defend national sovereignty against escalating trade and political pressure from the United States. The Liberal Party secured a fourth consecutive term, forming a minority government with 169 seats, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre lost his long-held seat amid a dramatic shift in voter sentiment. Carney, a former central banker, campaigned on resisting U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and threats, framing the election as a referendum on Canadian independence. Trump called Carney to congratulate him, with both leaders agreeing to meet to discuss bilateral economic and security ties. Carney has pledged to reduce economic reliance on the U.S. and strengthen relationships with other global allies, warning of economic challenges ahead.
QZ’s Comment: The legacy media portrays U.S. and Canadian politics as parallel systems—they are not. Carney is a technocrat with strong credibility in globalist and liberal-internationalist circles, but his governance will likely amount to performative defiance paired with substantive compliance. While the U.S. can afford strategic decoupling from China—and even, if necessary, from Canada and Mexico—Canada lacks the economic or strategic capacity to detach from the U.S. without risking a sharp decline in its standard of living, fiscal stability, and geopolitical security. The Canadian dollar functions as a petro-currency closely tied to U.S. economic performance, with approximately 75% of Canadian exports heading to the U.S. and more than 50% of imports coming from its southern neighbor.