Unadorned Notes: April 4-7, 2025
Trump Dismisses Tariff Pause; Trump Threatens China Tariff Hike; Strong Job Growth Amid Tariffs; Gold Drops as Dollar Gains; Nissan Considers U.S. Production Shift
U.S. Politics, Policies, and Geopolitics
Trump Dismisses Tariff Pause: President Donald Trump reaffirmed his commitment to broad new tariffs on multiple countries, rejecting suggestions of a pause despite international pressure. In an Oval Office meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump stated that tariffs are central to his economic strategy, though he left room for negotiations under certain conditions. The president’s remarks came amid market volatility and confusion over conflicting statements from administration officials regarding possible flexibility on the tariffs. Netanyahu expressed Israel’s willingness to reduce trade barriers and eliminate its trade deficit with the U.S., but Trump indicated this might not suffice to exempt the country from tariffs. Trump also warned of additional levies on China and criticized trade practices by Japan and the European Union, signaling continued escalation in trade tensions.1
QZ’s Comment: As I said in the previous note, the Trump tariffs are a negotiating tool, but it is also increasingly likely that part of these tariffs will be used as an actual revenue vehicle.
Trump Threatens China Tariff Hike: President Donald Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports starting Tuesday unless Beijing withdrew its newly enacted 34% retaliatory duties on U.S. goods. The proposed escalation would bring total U.S. tariffs on certain Chinese products to over 120%, affecting a wide range of consumer and industrial goods. Amid the market turmoil, Trump signaled a willingness to engage in future negotiations but emphasized the need to address non-tariff barriers and trade imbalances. While White House officials conveyed mixed messages about the administration’s openness to talks, Trump maintained that the U.S. would only engage with countries offering substantial concessions.2
QZ’s Comment: If anything, the PRC’s retaliation only reinforces Trump’s view that China has long weaponized trade flows for systemic abuse. The appropriate response, then, is not “mutual understanding” and accommodation—approaches that have failed spectacularly over the past several decades—but rather strategic separation and deterrence through pain. In China’s case, the Trump tariffs are NOT temporary pressure tactics but permanent leverage to incentivize derisking by triggering a strategic rebalancing of global value chains and forcing capital to shift away from China. So don’t be surprised if Trump seems content to accelerate the U.S.-China economic decoupling, because that is indeed his goal, which he sees as a long-overdue correction and a step toward restoring American economic sovereignty.
TikTok U.S. Ban Delayed Again: President Donald Trump intervened again to delay TikTok’s U.S. ban by signing an executive order that extended the deadline, allowing ByteDance more time to negotiate a sale of its U.S. operations. This followed concerns about national security due to TikTok’s Chinese ownership, with lawmakers fearing espionage and data misuse. Trump, once an advocate for banning the app, shifted his stance, citing political benefits from TikTok’s popularity among young voters. The second delay, signed last Friday, continues to spark debate over the legality of bypassing Congress’s 2024 law, which mandates a full divestiture by January 2025. ByteDance is in talks with the Trump administration, with a proposal for a U.S.-based entity that could satisfy the law’s requirements while retaining control over the app’s core algorithm.3
Court Blocks Trump’s Labor Board Firings: A federal appeals court has reinstated two Democratic appointees, Gwynne Wilcox and Cathy Harris, to their positions on labor-related boards after President Donald Trump attempted to fire them. The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 7-4 to block their dismissal, citing laws that protect officials from removal without cause. The decision overturned a previous panel ruling that had allowed the firings, which could have left the boards without a quorum to operate. The ruling sets the stage for a potential Supreme Court battle over presidential authority to control executive branch appointments. The Trump administration plans to appeal, seeking to reverse the court’s decision.4
Supreme Court Lifts Block on Deportations: The U.S. Supreme Court allowed President Donald Trump to enforce the Alien Enemies Act, granting him authority to expedite the deportation of alleged gang members. The ruling overturned a lower court decision that had blocked the act’s application to five Venezuelans challenging their deportation. While the court emphasized that deportees must be notified and given an opportunity for legal review, it allowed removals to proceed in the interim. The case will continue in lower courts, with future deportations subject to review and the right to challenge removals.5
U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks: President Donald Trump announced that the United States and Iran were set to begin direct talks on Tehran’s nuclear program, but Iran insisted that discussions would be indirect and mediated by Oman. Trump warned that failure in the talks would lead to severe consequences for Iran. The announcement comes after a history of indirect negotiations, with the last direct talks occurring during the Obama administration, which led to the 2015 nuclear deal. While Trump emphasized the preference for a deal over military action, Iran’s Foreign Ministry rejected direct negotiations and reiterated its position that talks should not be coerced. The U.S. has imposed strict sanctions on Iran, and Tehran has expanded its nuclear program beyond the limits set in the 2015 agreement.6
Economics, Finance, and Business
Strong Job Growth Amid Tariffs: The U.S. labor market added 228,000 jobs in March 2025, exceeding expectations despite President Donald Trump’s looming trade war and economic uncertainty. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2% as 232,000 individuals entered the workforce, though not all found employment immediately. Job gains were led by sectors like healthcare and hospitality, while federal government jobs saw a decrease. However, economists remain cautious, fearing that Trump’s tariffs and policies could eventually dampen economic growth and hurt job creation. The job market has cooled from previous years, and many businesses are hesitant to hire due to the uncertain economic climate.7
Gold Drops as Dollar Gains: Gold prices fell over 2% on Monday, with investors turning to the U.S. dollar amid escalating trade war fears. Spot gold reached $2,963.19 per ounce, marking a near four-week low, while U.S. gold futures dropped to $2,973.60. Analysts remain optimistic on gold, citing ongoing economic challenges despite the price drop. A stronger dollar made gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, and concerns over market liquidity further pressured prices. Meanwhile, silver prices saw a slight recovery, while platinum and palladium both experienced declines.8
Cryptocurrencies Fall Amid Market Turmoil: Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ether, saw significant price declines amid global market instability. Bitcoin dipped below $75,000 for the first time since last year’s market surge, though it experienced a slight rebound. This decline marks a steady drop in Bitcoin’s value since President Donald Trump took office, despite his previous support for the digital currency. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has lost half its value since early February 2025, following comments from Eric Trump encouraging purchases. The prices of other digital assets and crypto-related stocks also dropped on Monday.9
Trump Administration Boosts Medicare Payments: The Trump administration has approved a 5.06% increase in Medicare payment rates for 2026, exceeding previous proposals and expected to generate an additional $25 billion for the insurance industry. This significant increase will benefit major Medicare insurers like UnitedHealth Group, Humana, and CVS Health. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) cited rising medical costs and updated data as reasons for the larger-than-expected boost. The increase supports the Medicare Advantage program, which allows private insurers to manage benefits for older and disabled Americans. Despite this, CMS upheld a Biden-era policy limiting certain billing practices that have previously inflated payments to insurers.10
Nissan Considers U.S. Production Shift: Nissan is reportedly considering moving some of its vehicle production for the U.S. market from Japan to the United States, potentially in response to President Donald Trump’s new 25% auto import tariffs. The White House implemented these tariffs as part of its economic strategy to boost domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign imports. This move is seen as a sign that the tariffs may be having their intended effect, although experts warn that car prices could rise for consumers. Nissan’s decision involves relocating some production of its Rogue SUV, which is currently made in Japan.11