Unadorned Notes: November 24, 2023
Signs of Recovery in Commercial Real Estate; India’s Aviation Boom; Chinese Nationalists Toning Down Rhetoric; United Arab Emirates’ Boom; Climate Change Updates
QZ’s Comment: Hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving and enjoyed some nice turkey and pumpkin pie. Still feeling a bit sleepy after such a big meal? Let’s keep today’s newsletter nice and short. Thanks for reading.
Altman’s Return to OpenAI: Sam Altman’s return to OpenAI marks a significant shift from academic idealism to commercial pragmatism in the tech industry.1 His abrupt firing by OpenAI’s board and subsequent courtship for his return by investors highlight the tumultuous governance within the firm. Altman’s condition for a new company governance structure was central to the negotiations. Over 700 OpenAI employees threatened to leave if Altman and former President Greg Brockman were not reinstated, a situation that led Microsoft to hire both, offering more direct control over key AI technology.
Signs of Recovery in Commercial Real Estate: The commercial real estate sector is showing signs of recovery from the pandemic-era disruptions, with positive developments observed in various areas. There is noticeable growth in brick-and-mortar stores, self-storage, and entertainment-related and experiential retail sectors.2 The office sector, too, is experiencing a revival.3 While some slowdown is noted in sectors like life sciences and industrial, their activity levels have returned to those of 2019, indicating stability rather than a significant decline. This recovery is accompanied by a continued focus on sustainability and diversity within the industry.4
India’s Aviation Boom: India is experiencing a substantial aviation boom, characterized by over $100 billion in investments and the ordering of approximately 1,500 aircraft for delivery in the next decade. This surge is part of a broader transformation in the country’s aviation sector, anticipated to double the number of passengers by 2030 and lead to the construction of new airports nationwide. Delhi’s airport is soon expected to become the world’s second busiest, reflecting the significant changes in India’s aviation landscape. This growth is supported by better-capitalized and managed airlines, such as Indigo and the recently privatized Air India. This expansion is poised to shift the global aviation industry’s center of gravity, potentially making India one of the largest markets for major manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus.5
Chinese Nationalists Toning Down Rhetoric: The recent meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in San Francisco has temporarily stabilized U.S.-China relations.6 This meeting came at a critical juncture, with bilateral relations previously deteriorating to their lowest point in decades. In response, Chinese state media and nationalist pundits, including Sima Nan, have moderated their anti-U.S. rhetoric, reflecting a shift towards fostering a more amicable Sino-American relationship.7
Israel-Hamas War: The planned truce and hostage deal between Israel and Hamas, which included a four-day halt in military operations in Gaza and the release of hostages, faced delays. The commencement of these actions was initially scheduled for a Thursday morning but did not proceed as planned.8
United Arab Emirates’ Boom: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is experiencing a remarkable economic boom, attracting global investors, including Chinese, Indian, Russian, and Western businesspeople. This influx is driven by the country’s quest for stability and success, positioning it as the “Singapore of the Middle East”. Simultaneously, the UAE is expanding its geopolitical influence, evident in its role as host of the upcoming UN climate summit. However, this rapid growth is not without its challenges, as the UAE is also encountering significant mistakes in its path to expansion.910
Climate Change Updates: The upcoming UN climate-change conference in Dubai will provide a platform for governments to evaluate progress made since the Paris Agreement of 2015. A key focus of the conference will be on carbon-dioxide removal, a crucial yet under-discussed climate solution. Despite the presence of numerous startups and growing investments in this area, the technology for effectively removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere remains in its early stages of development.1112